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Prediction for CME (2026-06-09T16:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-06-09T16:36Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/46749/-1
CME Note: The source of this event is a filament eruption seen originating from the vicinity of Active Region 14463 (N17E15) beginning at approximately 2026-06-09T15:46Z. Filament material can be seen in SDO AIA, STEREO A EUVI and GOES SUVI 304. A wide region of dimming, field line opening and a slight EUV wave is also visible in SDO AIA 171, 193, 211, STEREO A EUVI 195 and GOES SUVI 284 appearing to exhibit heavy Eastern deflection, possibly due to the eruptions proximity to a coronal hole.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-06-13T02:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/46751/1
Model Inputs:
2026-06-09T16:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-44.0, Lat.=12.0, Speed=380.0, HalfAngle=33.0, Time21.5=2026-06-10T01:55Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-06-13T02:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=5

Other Location(s) Impact:
BepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-06-11T05:36Z
Europa Clipper with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-06-14T22:00Z
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-06-14T00:00Z

Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260610_015500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260610_015500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260610_015500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260610_015500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260610_015500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260610_015500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260610_015500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260610_015500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260610_015500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260610_015500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260610_015500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260610_015500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260610_015500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260610_015500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260610_015500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260610_015500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 86.70 hour(s)
Difference: 7.85 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Elizabeth Juelfs (M2M SWAO) on 2026-06-09T19:09Z

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